Long Shots Succeed All the Time

Before Sunday’s game, the Miami Dolphins had a firm hold on a playoff spot. But it wasn’t yet a lock. They needed only 1 of 4 possible results to happen to get in:

  1. They win their game against the Buffalo Bills, or
  2. The Baltimore Raven lose their game against the Cincinnati Bengals, or
  3. The Cleveland Brown lose their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, or
  4. The Indianapolis Costs lose their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If I was a Miami Dolphins fan (like JC) heading into last Sunday’s action, I would’ve been making meal plans for next week’s first round playoff game.

But let’s remember that just because something is likely doesn’t mean it is a sure thing.

As Sunday’s slate of NFL games progressed, things went from bad to worse for the Dolphins.

While the Dolphins were getting unexpectedly blown out by the Bills, the Ravens were similarly blowing out the Bengals. That was a bad sign.

But there was still hope over in the Steelers/Browns game. The Steelers were hanging tough (even without their all-pro starting QB who sat the game out). While trailing late in the game, the Steelers put up points in the 4th quarter and looked as if they might pull out a late comeback. But ultimately, they fell short.

This was more bad news for the Dolphins. Now, all their hopes were pinned on the Jaguars to pull an upset of the better Colts team. 

I think you know where this is going… 

By the time the Dolphins’ plane landed in Miami after their trip home from Buffalo, it was over. Their hopes of a post-season had vanished.

That’s why they play the game. Nothing is certain. Upsets happen all the time. And the “unlikely” is more likely to happen than we think.

As traders, we know this in our bones. It’s why we use stops, define our risks, use proper position sizing, and focus on best practices over the long run. Because we know that on any one trade — as in any one game — literally anything can happen.

Here’s the video I made today about Day #4 of my first $SPY Options campaign of 2021:


~ @chicagosean